Falling oil prices and and US shale drillers drowning in a sea of debt could
be the spark for a new credit crunch
Remember the global financial crisis, triggered six years ago when billions of
dollars of dodgy loans - doled out by banks to subprime borrowers and then
resold numerous times on international debt markets - began to unravel and
default?
Stock markets plunged, banks collapsed and the entire global financial system
teetered on the brink of catastrophe. Well a similarly chilling economic
scenario could be set off by the current collapse in oil prices.
Based on recent stress tests of subprime borrowers in the energy sector in the
US produced by Deutsche Bank, should the price of US crude fall by a further
20pc to $60 per barrel, it could result in up to a 30pc default rate among B
and CCC rated high-yield US borrowers in the industry. West Texas
Intermediate crude is currently trading at multi-year lows of around $75 per
barrel, down from $107 per barrel in June.
“A shock of that magnitude could be sufficient to trigger a broader high-yield
market default cycle, if materialised,” warn Deutsche strategists Oleg
Melentyev and Daniel Sorid in their report.
Five years ago at the beginning of what has become known as the US shale oil
revolution, drillers started to load up on debt to fund their operations and
acquire new acreage as vast areas of North America started to open up for
exploration.
In 2010, energy and materials companies made up just 18pc of the US high-yield
index – which tracks sub-investment grade borrowers – but today they account
for 29pc of the measure after drilling firms spent the past five years
borrowing heavily to underwrite the operations. The result of this debt
splurge has been a spectacular rise in US oil and gas output.
Latest estimates suggest that by the end of the decade the US will have
outstripped even Saudi Arabia and Russia in terms of oil production. The
development of new shale resources in North America and the opening up of
fields in the Arctic seas off Alaska could see the country pumping 14.2m
barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum liquids by 2020, up from 7.5m bpd
in 2013.
This rush to pump more oil in the US has created a dangerous debt bubble in a
notoriously volatile segment of corporate credit markets, which could pose a
wider systemic risk in the world’s biggest economy. By encouraging ever more
drilling in pursuit of lower oil prices, the US Department of Energy has
unleashed a potential economic monster and pitched these heavily debt-laden
shale oil drilling companies into an impossible battle for market share
against some of the world’s most powerful low-cost producers in the
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).