US group founded by creators of atomic bomb moves ‘Doomsday Clock’ ahead two minutes; not so fast, other scientists say
A US nuclear bomb test at the Marshall Islands, 1954 (photo credit: Wikicommons/United States Department of Energy) |
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists says Earth is now closer to human-caused
doomsday than it has been in more than 30 years because of global
warming and nuclear weaponry. But other experts say that’s much too
gloomy.
The
US advocacy group founded by the creators of the atomic bomb moved
their famed “Doomsday Clock” ahead two minutes on Thursday. It said the
world is now three minutes from a catastrophic midnight, instead of five
minutes.
“This is about doomsday; this is about the end
of civilization as we know it,” bulletin executive director Kennette
Benedict said at a news conference in Washington.
She called both climate change and
modernization of nuclear weaponry equal but undeniable threats to
humanity’s continued existence that triggered the 20 scientists on the
board to decide to move the clock closer to midnight.
“The probability of global catastrophe is very
high, and the actions needed to reduce the risks of disaster must be
taken very soon,” Benedict said.
But other scientists aren’t quite so pessimistic.
Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of both
geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University, said in
an email: “I suspect that humans will ‘muddle through’ the climate
situation much as we have muddled through the nuclear weapons situation —
limiting the risk with cooperative international action and parallel
domestic policies.”
The bulletin has included climate change in its doomsday clock since 2007.
“The fact that the Doomsday clock-setters
changed their definition of ‘doomsday’ shows how profoundly the world
has changed — they have to find a new source of doom because global
thermonuclear war is now so unlikely,” Harvard psychologist Steven
Pinker wrote in an email. Pinker in his book “The Better Angels of our
Nature” uses statistics to argue that the world has become less
war-like, less violent and more tolerant in recent decades and
centuries.
Richard Somerville, a member of the Bulletin’s
board who is a climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, said the trend in heat-trapping emissions from the burning
of fossil fuels will “lead to major climatic disruption globally. The
urgency has nothing to do with politics or ideology. It arises from the
laws of physics and biology and chemistry. These laws are
non-negotiable.”
But Somerville agreed that the threat from climate change isn’t quite as all-or-nothing as it is with nuclear war.
Even with the end of the cold war, the lack of
progress in the dismantling of nuclear weapons and countries like the
United States and Russia spending hundreds of billions of dollars on
modernizing nuclear weaponry makes an atomic bomb explosion — either
accidental or on purpose — a continuing and more urgent threat, Benedict
said.
But Benedict did acknowledge the group has
been warning of imminent nuclear disaster with its clock since 1947 and
it hasn’t happened yet.
Copyright 2015 The Associated Press.
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