Tactics in question as effort to train 'moderate' rebels stalls
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad |
BEIRUT, Lebanon – The Obama administration is contemplating ways to
remove the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad as part of its
ISIS strategy, but the approach requires the acquiescence of Syria
backers Russia and Iran, who don’t want to see him removed by force.
The Obama administration’s method for removing Assad is still open to
discussion. Two possibilities are establishment of a no-fly zone over
Syrian opposition-controlled territory and a Turkish military invasion.
The U.S. and a loose coalition of Sunni Arab countries have been
bombing strictly ISIS targets in Syria, although the Arab allies are
less inclined to go after ISIS than to topple the Assad regime.
Informed U.S. sources tell WND that airstrikes alone will not be
sufficient to eliminate the ISIS threat. The thinking now is to go for
the removal of Assad in an effort to prevent Syrian opposition fighters
from joining ISIS, which has declared the establishment of a “caliphate”
ruled by Islamic law over the territory it has captured in Syria and
Iraq.
Sources say that the strategy of bombing only ISIS targets helps
Assad and, by extension, Iran and the Shiite government in Iraq, which
also is battling ISIS.
The majority of the population in Syria is Sunni while Assad is a
Shia-Alawite. The Assad regime has protected many of the minorities in
Syria, including Christians, even during the tenure of his father, Hafaz
Assad, before him.
ISIS would be the strongest Sunni group to take over if Assad were
forcibly removed. However, ISIS has no tolerance for religious
minorities and has a reputation for beheading and crucifying those who
do not convert to Sunni Islam under its strict interpretation of Islamic
law, or Shariah.
ISIS-al-Qaida unification
The intent of the Obama administration is to weaken ISIS membership
by redirecting Syrian opposition forces to topple Assad and not join
ISIS. However, the Syrian opposition is comprised mostly of jihadist
fighters who are siding with ISIS and the al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat
al-Nusra.
Now, al-Nusra and ISIS have decided to put aside their differences
temporarily in the interest of furthering the objectives of creating the
caliphate and subjugating the population to its more radical Sunni
interpretation of the Quran.
In effect, the Obama administration is bowing to pressures not only
from the Sunni Arab countries that are members of the anti-ISIS
coalition but also to Turkey, which has been a conduit for the flow of
fighters and financial resources to ISIS and other jihadist groups.
The U.S. also is reacting to the growth of Iranian influence in Syria
and the region through the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, which
has sent fighters to back Assad in Syria.
Sunnis in the region have become more concerned recently about the
growing influence of Iran, which backed the recent Houthi clan takeover
of Yemen, which borders Sunni Saudi Arabia. They’ve also seen recent
concessions by the U.S. to allow Iran to maintain some of its nuclear
development program, which they believe Tehran would use to develop
nuclear weapons.
Removal by force, if necessary
Still left unanswered by the administration is the approach to removing Assad.
It either can be done through a political transition subject to the
approval of Russia and Iran or through a military campaign undertaken by
a combination of U.S. bombing and a military invasion of Syria by
Turkish forces.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been advocating the removal of Assad by force, if necessary.
According to a CNN report, the White House has convened four meetings
of the president’s national security team on defeating ISIS and how its
strategy on Syria can accomplish the objective.
Sources say the Obama administration believes its approach of
training “moderate” Syrian opposition forces will take too long in light
of ISIS’ increasing strength. Until now, removal of Assad wasn’t the
priority.
Indeed, the vetting and training of any moderate Syrian forces by the Pentagon hasn’t yet begun.
“The vetting hasn’t started,” said Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John
Kirby. “Once it does start, that will be a three-to five-month process,
and then it’s about eight to nine months of training after that. So we
still got a ways to go.”
Strategy adjustment
Calls for the administration to review its current Syria policy came
after a letter from Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel last month to National
Security Adviser Susan Rice.
In a three-page memorandum to Rice, Hagel warned the U.S. would risk
gains in the war against ISIS if adjustments weren’t made to the policy,
especially on the future of the Assad regime.
In weighing the approach to removing Assad, Secretary of State John
Kerry has been meeting with diplomats from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates and Russia to work out a diplomatic transition for
Assad, his family and inner circle while maintaining large portions of
the government and its institutions.
The Arab countries, however, are impatient, sources say. But the
sources add that the fundamental elements of the Assad government must
remain in place, or Iran, which appears to be calling the shots on the
future of Syria, will not agree.
The Russians already tacitly have agreed to a Syria without Assad but
with the Shiite minority remaining in power. Sources have confirmed to
WND that the Iranians want to maintain Assad in power, for now.
Syrian sources tell WND, however, that the Assad regime’s days are
numbered anyway, and they see the country potentially dividing into
three parts, for Sunnis, Shia and the Kurds. They add that this
ultimately may be the outcome for Iraq as well.
Other sources contend, however, that Russia and Iran will insist on
maintaining Shia leadership in Syria. It would retain Iranian influence
while keeping the basic institutions of the Syrian government in place
with added reforms. It’s a scenario the Syrian opposition originally
wanted before becoming radicalized with the influx of foreign jihadist
fighters.
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/11/u-s-inserts-removal-of-assad-into-isis-strategy/#aO0WUyDzreYs73zQ.99
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